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On this episode of the “Fed Watch” podcast, by popular demand, I welcome Tom Luongo to the show! Luongo is one of my favorite writers because of his entertaining prose and his deeply refreshing take on macro, geopolitics, and global money markets. He is also a lifelong Bitcoiner, discussing it for many years in his writings and podcasts.
“Fed Watch” is the macro podcast for Bitcoiners. In this episode, we start with an overview of Luongo on the global situation, then dive into some details on Europe, the United States, the Federal Reserve, Ukraine and much more. We end the show by talking about what Luongo sees for the United States in the short to medium term, therefore, the next three to 24 months. Below I will provide a little more detail on what was said, but this is a must-listen episode!
The sick man at the table
The first question I ask Luongo is, is he as bearish as everyone else? It seems like everywhere we look, people are screaming about bear markets and crashing, from macro to geopolitics to bitcoin. However, I think this narrative of collapse is overstated, especially for the United States. I ask Luongo to give us his overview of the state of the markets.
He begins by identifying the patient at the table, that is to say Europe. Europe is the hardest hit by the forces that are unleashed at the moment: rising commodity prices, rising inflation, loss of trust in institutions, etc. As Europe struggles and begins to cannibalize itself, all capital from investment portfolios in Europe will eventually have to flow somewhere, and it will go to the United States.
The conflict that erupted in Ukraine is on Europe’s doorstep and, more specifically, on Europe’s best economy in the last decade: Poland. Luongo asks rhetorically: “Does Warsaw [Poland] or New York closer to Ukraine? As investors realize that this new conflict is not going away – and then fight it with economic weapons as they have been – they must destroy their own economies. Money will quickly flee from Europe to the United States. I think it will also flock to bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve is serious
I ask Luongo if he thinks the Fed will go through ultra-hawkish rate hikes. His response eloquently explains that Jerome Powell’s plan to raise rates in 2017 was cut short by COVID-19, and now Powell is going to scorched earth to raise rates to break the backs of all other central banks and rival currencies.
The reason the Fed will do this, according to Luongo, is that the Fed, owned by Wall Street banks and US monetary interests, is trying to erase the decade of bad investments that have accumulated since the Great Financial Crisis. It also presents it as a rift in the relationship between US monetary interests and globalists in Europe. We cannot understand the Fed without understanding the intent of the Davos mob to rule the world or burn it down.
According to Luongo, the Federal Reserve will continuously raise rates until 2024, to break the back of Davos and radical globalist/communist goals. I tend to agree with him. I might not say this as colorfully as Luongo, but the globalists are “global communists” and will burn the global economy before they admit defeat.
Bitcoin and American destinies are linked
In the final part of the episode, I ask Luongo what he thinks of my theory: what’s good for the US economy is good for bitcoin right now. The majority of bitcoin supply is likely held by US entities, the US has the largest share of mining, the largest share of people interested in bitcoin, the most capital money- risk and some of the most lax regulations. So if bitcoin is to thrive in a major economy, it will thrive in the United States.
Luongo tends to agree with me on this point, but breaks it down further, saying that there is a segment of Wall Street that loves bitcoin, and they are the same people who are fighting Davos. They are planning a SWIFT replacement and are in favor of proof of work cryptocurrency as they have money in it now with mining taking off in the US
I can’t cover all of his comments in detail because what’s great about Luongo is that he takes threads from many different topics and weaves them together in a refreshing perspective.
After the exchange above, we enter the future of Bitcoin as it relates to Europe. While we are both relatively bullish on the US economy over the next 10 years – and that will be good for bitcoin – we are also both very bearish on Europe – and that will be good for bitcoin too – because it gives European capital a reason to flee to bitcoin.
Again, this is a must-watch episode, with deadly serious subject matter mixed with Luongo’s entertaining storytelling ability.
That’s it for this week. Thank you readers and listeners. If you like this content, subscribe, review on iTunes and share!
This is a guest post by Ansel Lindner. The opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.